Every time you pull up to the petrol station lately, it feels like nothing but stress. You pull up to the pump, the numbers start climbing, and somewhere in the back of your mind you’re doing the mental maths. How much is this going to hurt today? If you’ve been watching prices creep up month after month, you’re not alone. But now, after the UAE has made one of the biggest energy decisions in its history, everyone’s asking the same question – “Will Gas Prices Decrease In June Since UAE Has Officially Left OPEC & OPEC+?” I have all the important details you need to know, so keep reading to find out more.
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Nearly 60 Years Later…
On April 28, 2026, the UAE announced it was leaving OPEC and OPEC+, with the official exit having took place on May 1. This was a massive deal. The UAE had been part of OPEC since 1967, starting through Abu Dhabi, and stayed in even after the federation was formed in 1971. That’s almost six decades of being part of the group that determines how much oil the world gets and at what price.
So what exactly is OPEC? Think of it as a club of oil-producing countries that agree on how much oil each member is allowed to produce. By controlling supply, they influence global oil prices. Together, OPEC members control about 30% of the world’s oil supply. The UAE was OPEC’s third-largest producer, sitting right behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Which means OPEC takes a significant hit by losing The UAE.
Why Did The UAE Walk Away?
The UAE has poured over $150 billion into expanding ADNOC (Abu Dhabi National Oil Company) with the goal of producing up to 5 million barrels of oil per day. But under OPEC’s rules, the UAE was capped well below what it was actually capable of producing. Imagine building a brand new kitchen with a state-of-the-art oven and then being told you can only use two burners. That’s essentially what was happening.
UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei put it plainly. The decision was about being free to respond to the market “at the right time and at the right pace,” without being tied down by group quotas. And it wasn’t just about ambition. The UAE had watched other OPEC+ members like Iraq and Russia routinely produce more than their agreed limits, while the UAE largely played by the rules. That kind of arrangement gets frustrating fast.
Add to that the very real pressure of being under missile and drone attacks from fellow OPEC member Iran, and having its key oil export route – the Strait of Hormuz – severely disrupted, and the decision starts to make a lot of sense.
What You’re Actually Paying Right Now For Gas?
Let’s get into the numbers you care about. As of May 1, 2026, here’s what you’re paying at the pump:
- Super 98: AED 3.66 per litre (up from AED 3.39 in April)
- Special 95: AED 3.55 per litre (up from AED 3.28 in April)
- E-Plus 91: AED 3.48 per litre (up from AED 3.20 in April)
- Diesel: AED 4.69 per litre – unchanged
To put that in real terms. If you drive a regular car with a 40-litre tank, you’re paying AED 11.20 more per full fill-up than you were in April. If you’re driving a larger SUV with a 120-litre tank, that’s AED 33.60 extra every time you fill up. It adds up quickly.
These prices are set by the UAE Fuel Price Committee, which reviews global oil benchmarks at the end of every month. With new rates announced on the last day. With prices kicking in on the 1st of the following month. So the prices we see in June will be announced on May 31.
So Will June Be Any Cheaper?
Here’s the honest answer – probably not by much, at least not yet.
The UAE’s exit from OPEC is a huge structural change, but it’s one that takes time to actually show up at the pump. Analysts at Wood Mackenzie have said the departure will have “minimal impact on market fundamentals in 2026,” with the bigger effects expected to come through as new production capacity comes online closer to 2027.
The other big factor right now is the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow stretch of water between Iran and Oman handles around 20% of the world’s daily oil supply. And it’s been severely disrupted since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict on February 28th. As long as that chokepoint remains restricted, global oil prices stay high, and UAE pump prices follow. Brent crude averaged around $99–107 per barrel in April. A far cry from the $68–70 it was sitting at before the conflict started.
The single biggest thing that could bring June prices down is a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Once that happens and the UAE can freely ramp up its production. Meaning it could add up to 1.6 million extra barrels per day to global markets. And more supply means lower prices. That’s the moment residents will genuinely feel the benefit of the OPEC exit at the pump.
What Does This Mean Long-Term For UAE Residnets?
Once UAE is free to produce without OPEC’s limits, it’s aiming to hit 5 million barrels per day by 2027. More UAE oil on the market means more global supply, and more supply puts downward pressure on prices. There’s also a possibility that the UAE’s departure triggers other members to rethink their own positions. And if more countries leave, OPEC’s ability to keep prices high weakens even further. Some analysts have even suggested a potential price competition between Gulf producers once the Iran conflict ends. This comes as countries race to claim a bigger slice of the global market. For everyday residents, that kind of competition is actually a good thing.
What Should You Do Right Now?
While we wait for the longer-term benefits to kick in, here are a few practical things worth keeping in mind:
The June 2026 fuel prices will be announced on May 31. As always, save that date. If prices are set to go up, a lot of people make it a habit to fill up the night before the announcement just to lock in the current rate for a bit longer.
If you drive a large SUV or a high-consumption vehicle, now is genuinely a good time to think about smarter driving habits. I’m talking about smoother acceleration, less idling, and keeping your tyres properly inflated can all make a noticeable difference to how often you’re visiting the pump.
And while the big drop in prices isn’t here just yet, the UAE’s exit from OPEC is one of the clearest signals that the current price spike is not the new normal. The direction of travel (once the region stabilises) is toward more supply, more competition, and eventually, lower prices. We’re just not quite there yet.
