Good news for your wallet! After months of watching prices creep up and down like a rollercoaster nobody signed up for, petrol just got a little easier on your bank balance. The July price cut is here, and it is all thanks to global oil prices finally dropping after a wild few months due to Middle East tensions. But is this a one-off dip or the start of a longer trend? Keep reading for all the details.
If You Aren’t Aware Of All The New Happenings In The UAE, Here Are 6 Key Changes Taking Effect In UAE This July
July Brings Relief At The Petrol Pump
The UAE Fuel Price Committee slashed prices across every fuel grade for July. This follows a sharp pullback in global crude prices from the highs recorded earlier this year. Starting July 1, here is what you are paying:
- Super 98: AED 3.40 per litre, down from AED 3.95 in June
- Special 95: AED 3.29, down from AED 3.83
- E-Plus 91: AED 3.21, down from AED 3.76
- Diesel: AED 3.60, down from AED 4.33
This follows the UAE’s monthly fuel pricing system, which reviews prices every month based on average global crude and refined fuel costs. When international prices shift, your pump price follows.
It’s A Drop. But, It’s Still Pricier Than Last Year
Before you celebrate too hard, here’s the catch. Prices are still higher than they were a year ago, thanks to the steep run-up in energy costs during the first half of 2026. Comparing July 2026 to July 2025:
- Super 98: AED 3.40 vs AED 2.70 (up 26%)
- Special 95: AED 3.29 vs AED 2.58 (up 28%)
- E-Plus 91: AED 3.21 vs AED 2.51 (up 28%)
- Diesel: AED 3.60 vs AED 2.63 (up 37%)
Why Did Oil Prices Ease Off
This month’s drop reflects a real shift in global oil market conditions. Brent crude spiked above $120 a barrel. The increase comes after disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz affected global oil supply. However, petrol prices calmed down after the US and Iran agreed to a mid-June ceasefire, including a 60-day truce and a plan to reopen the Strait.
Brent ended the quarter near $73 a barrel, its steepest quarterly drop since 2020. And, supply picked up too. OPEC+ has raised production for four months straight, adding about 188,000 barrels a day in July alone and nearly 600,000 barrels a day since April. So, more supply and less fear are what brought fuel prices down in Dubai.
What The Forecasters Are Saying
With oil prices easing, major energy agencies and investment banks have started trimming their forecasts for the rest of 2026.
- The US Energy Information Administration expects Brent to average around $105 a barrel in June and July. It’s then expected to dip below $80 in the third quarter and ease toward $70 by year-end.
- Goldman Sachs cut its fourth-quarter Brent forecast to $80 a barrel, from $90. They expect prices could edge toward $70 if Gulf supply recovers faster than expected.
- Morgan Stanley now sees $90 for the third quarter and $80 for the fourth quarter.
- Citi has one of the more conservative outlooks. They are forecasting $75 in Q3, $70 in Q4, and an average of $65 in 2027.
If these forecasts hold up, they set the stage for continued stability, or even further easing of UAE fuel prices in the months ahead.
So, Will Prices Drop Again?
Here is the most likely path forward. Brent stays in the $70 to $80 range, UAE fuel prices broadly stabilise, and any future monthly cuts are probably smaller than July’s. If tensions flare up again, expect Hormuz shipping to slow, Brent to climb back above $80 to $90, and UAE prices to hold steady or edge higher.
If Gulf supply recovers faster than expected and OPEC+ keeps the taps open, Brent could trend closer to $70, and UAE drivers could be looking at more price cuts before the year is out. For now, the monthly pricing mechanism means whatever happens with global oil, up or down, will keep showing up at UAE pumps in real time.
So while nobody has a crystal ball on petrol prices, the trend is looking friendlier for now. For the next few weeks, keep those tanks topped up smartly, and keep reading GulfBuzz for all the latest petrol price updates!
